CBR Preview - Seeking the Right Pace of Normalization
The latest CBR communications and inflation developments suggest that a rate hike at the upcoming meeting is a done deal, though the jury is still out what size it will be. Kirill Tremasov, the head of the CBR's monetary policy department, recently said the bank would consider the same options as at its March meeting, which included 25 bp and 50 bp hikes. We see several reasons why the CBR might speed up normalizing its policy and choose the larger hike this time around. That said, it will be worth following this week's news flow, which could increase the chances of the 25 bp option. We also expect the CBR to keep unchanged its main signal regarding the need to return to neutral policy stance.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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