CBR Review - 50 bp Cut Today, Room Left for Another 50 in December
As we had expected, the CBR cut its key rate today by 50 bps to 6.50%. It also lowered its year-end inflation forecast from 4.0-4.5% to 3.2-3.7%. It is again seeing short-term disinflation risks - which are threatening to undermine confidence in its ability to keep inflation near the 4.0% target - and even set its 2020 year-end forecast in a range of 3.5-4.0%. Given the rising risk of persistently low inflation, we expect another 50 bp cut in December and think the bank could even lower its inflation-neutral key rate range.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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