Commodities Daily - April 1, 2019

> Oil gets boost from bullish data, upbeat Chinese PMIs, reported progress in trade talks. This morning, oil prices are on the rise amid risk-on sentiment owing to reported progress toward a trade deal. Support is also coming from an unexpected increase in China's official manufacturing PMI for March, which was released yesterday and showed a first increase in factory activity in four months. This was confirmed this morning by the private Caixin/Markit PMI survey. We think that, despite this morning's risk rally possibly abating, Brent could test the $69/bbl mark later in the day. The next strong resistance level is at $69.19/bbl, which is Brent's 200-day moving average.> Gold remains under pressure. Today will see the publication of various PMIs and US retail sales data. The UK Parliament will vote on several options with regard to Brexit. We expect gold to stay below $1,300/oz in light of political risks and a lack of fresh growth catalysts.> Strong rally in base metals continues. Stronger than expected March PMIs from China have buoyed investors, while the US-China trade talks have generated optimistic reports in the press. Base metals are advancing today, with nickel leading the way with a 2.5% gain so far today as it closes in on $13,500/tonne. Zinc and aluminum are up 1% apiece, while copper has tested $6,500/tonne, having added 0.5% so far today.