Commodities Daily - April 10, 2019

> Oil ticks lower on IMF outlook, US-EU trade war fears, EIA monthly report and API inventory data; focus today on EIA inventory update. We expect the EIA to report a strong build in US crude stocks of around 5 mln bbl on subdued refinery intake amid higher imports, with exports likely to stay below 3 mln bpd. However, strong refined product draws will likely counterbalance this, resulting in an ultimately neutral impact on Brent, which we expect to settle just below $71/bbl. Still, such a strong build in crude stocks would likely spark an initial plunge in the Brent price, in our view, as it would spook investors, who we believe will be willing to take profits following the recent $2/bbl surge in Brent. Today's agenda is also full of other potential drivers, including the ECB decision, OPEC's monthly market report, UK industrial production, US weekly mortgage applications and March CPI, and the latest Fed minutes.> Gold prices consolidating ahead of Fed minutes and ECB decision. The ECB will make a rate decision, followed by a press conference with President Draghi (15:30 Moscow time), and the Fed will release minutes from its March 20 meeting (21:00). We expect soft rhetoric out of both the Fed and ECB; this should support gold, which we expect to trade in a range of $1,305-1,310/oz.