Commodities Daily - April 17, 2019

> Oil prices surge on bullish API data, China's 1Q19 GDP, Iranian oil exports slump; EIA weekly report eyed. We expect a 3-4 mln bbl draw in US crude oil inventories from the EIA, which would likely have a bullish effect on oil prices. We expect Brent to break above the key $72.68/bbl resistance level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level derived from Brent's October correction) later today and settle close to $73/bbl. > Gold slides to YTD low on persistent risk appetite, but weaker dollar providing support. This morning, gold has attempted to pare back yesterday's losses and is trading just below $1,280/oz as we write. This is a rather surprising move following upbeat Chinese data released this morning and comes amid a rise in EUR/USD. We think this is temporary and do not expect gold to make a sharp U-turn, so we see it trading in the $1,275-1,280/oz range for most of today. Later on, the Fed Beige Book will be in focus, along with UK and eurozone inflation and US MBA mortgages. The US trade balance and wholesale inventories are also on today's radar.