Commodities Daily - April 25, 2019

> Oil brushes off bearish EIA inventory report, attempts to extend rally. This morning, Brent touched the $75/bbl mark for the first time since October 31 last year despite continued dollar strengthening and a largely bearish EIA report. We attribute this in part to reports today that India's crude oil production in March dropped to just 2.85 mln tonnes (around 0.68 mln bpd) from 3.04 mln tonnes (around 0.72 mln bpd) a year earlier, as well as positive stock market momentum in Asia. Today, US jobless claims and March durable goods orders are in focus. We are skeptical that Brent will continue to rally and secure above $75/bbl later in the day. We see it trading mainly within the $74.5-75.0/bbl range.> Gold defends $1,270/oz frontier despite further dollar gains. Rising pessimism and recession worries (yesterday owing to downbeat data out of Germany), traditionally supportive factors for gold prices, have encouraged some investors to maintain their exposure to defensive assets, while others have found the current prices attractive. Yesterday, Reuters reported that German exporters were struggling with weaker demand abroad amid the US-China trade war. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are set to travel to Beijing for another round of trade talks that commence on April 30. Today, investors will eye US jobless claims and March durable goods orders. We expect gold to trade near $1,275/oz for the rest of the day.