Commodities Daily - April 5, 2019

> Oil holding in $69-70/bbl range amid fresh Libyan turmoil, US-China talks; US nonfarm payrolls, rig count data on the radar today. Overnight, Donald Trump said that it may take "weeks" before a final trade deal is detailed. High-level talks continue today in DC but there is no set schedule thereafter. Today, investors will eye the monthly US nonfarm payroll report, which is usually a market-mover. The Bloomberg consensus guides for 177k jobs added in March. This comes on the heels of yesterday's US jobless claims reported, which showed a 49-year low. We think that Brent will continue to fluctuate around $69/bbl for most of today, as we think it unlikely that even a strong nonfarm payroll report will be sufficient to push it above $70/bbl. We think that Brent will close the week having again failed to secure above its own 200-day moving average ($69.57/bbl today).> Gold fluctuating around $1,290/oz. Today investors' focus will be on the jobs report due from the US. If the data is better than expected, gold could slide to $1,280/oz. Yesterday, Goldcorp shareholders voted in favor of merging with Newmont, which increases the chances that the deal to create the world's largest gold miner will go through.