Commodities Daily - August 14, 2019

> Oil spikes as US delays some new China tariffs, but bearish API and China data weigh; EIA report on the radar. Following the API release, Brent slid below $61/bbl, where it remains this morning after China showed a drop in industrial output growth in July to a more than 17-year low. Following the downbeat API data we are now very skeptical that the EIA will report a crude stock draw that would be in line with seasonal trends. If, however, the EIA does show a draw of any scale, then a rally toward $62/bbl could be in the cards, especially given the currently upbeat global market sentiment.> Gold prices swing sharply intraday yesterday. The partial delay in new tariffs on Chinese goods led to a strong selloff in gold prices. German 2Q19 GDP, released today, came in at negative 0.1%, in line with the consensus. We expect gold prices to trade near $1,500/oz today. > US-China news boosts metal prices yesterday, but momentum did not last long. Chinese industrial production data published this morning has disappointed, including weak production in steel and aluminum. Without detailed guidance about what a potential trade deal would look like and when it could emerge, we think metal prices will continue to trade flat today.