Commodities Daily - August 19, 2019

> Oil prices advancing on Saudi oil field attack, rising equities; OPEC outlook update released. We expect Brent to break above the $60/bbl mark today amid the stock market tailwinds, elevated Middle East uncertainty and upbeat trade war comments (we note that the retaliation China promised last week has not emerged).> Gold price consolidating around $1,510/oz this morning. Pressure on the gold price arose on Friday after reports emerged that Germany's coalition government planned to boost spending to try to ward off a recession. US data, meanwhile, was mixed, while comments by several Fed officials did not add clarity about what the Fed may do in September. Both the US data and the Fed comments were essentially neutral for gold. Today, we think gold prices might drop toward the $1,500/oz mark amid the ratcheting-down of rhetoric between the US and China and lack of other major headlines.> Base metals showing slight gains amid moderate optimism about prospects for US-China talks. Stocks of copper at the LME climbed by 11% on Friday, while no new headlines have emerged from Indonesia, which is supporting nickel prices. Aluminum is trading above $1,800/tonne ahead of the monthly report from the International Aluminum Institute.