Commodities Daily - August 28, 2019

> Oil recovers on upbeat API data after China dismisses US trade talk claim; EIA data eyed. We expect the EIA to report a crude oil stock draw of 7-8 mln bbl, which the market would likely brush aside given the even more bullish API data. If that's the case, and if the agency confirms no gasoline inventory build (amid seasonally strong demand, despite higher refinery production) and a draw in total petroleum stocks (including crude oil and refined products but excluding strategic petroleum reserves), it could push Brent toward $61/bbl later today given a lack of stock market headwinds, in our view. > Gold posting moderate gains as geopolitical risks remain in place. Yesterday, a number of hawkish statements emphasizing the importance of the independence of central banks were heard from the current or former officials of major central banks. Meanwhile, ahead of September 1, when new tariffs take effect, commentary from Chinese and US officials is entirely possible. The gold price climbed from $1,530/oz to $1,540/oz yesterday, and we expect it to remain in the $1,535-1,545/oz range today.