Commodities Daily - August 29, 2019

> Oil fails to rally further after bullish EIA report; US 2Q19 GDP eyed. Today, investors will eye the second print of US 2Q19 GDP at 15:30 Moscow time, with the consensus pointing to a slight downward revision from 2.0% to 2.1%. We note, however, that a modest upward revision to consumer spending could result in a surprise to the upside. However, as Bloomberg recently noted, even if growth picked up again in 2Q19, heightened uncertainly and trade tensions will likely limit the investment gains in 2H19. We expect Brent to secure above $60/bbl today and possibly make a move toward $61/bbl if the US GDP figure in fact beats the consensus.> Gold likely to retreat today amid positive geopolitical backdrop. This morning, a Chinese Commerce Ministry official said the two sides were discussing a possible visit by a Chinese delegation to Washington. After the close of European trading yesterday, news emerged that Italian politicians had agreed to form a new ruling coalition. Today we will see macro data from the US. Good numbers would likely push gold lower from the current level of $1,546/oz to $1,530/oz.