Commodities Daily - December 12, 2019

> Oil pares losses from bearish EIA data, boosted by OPEC report, stocks. Today, oil investors will be focused on the IEA's monthly report, which we expect to be more bullish than last month's edition following the decision at the OPEC+ meeting. Later, the focus will turn to the outcome of US President Donald Trump's meeting with his top trade advisors (there could be an announcement overnight), where the December 15 tariffs on some $160 bln in Chinese goods will be discussed. We still see the chances of positive and negative outcomes as about equal, as officials differ in their views on what effect yet another tariff hike would have on the US economy. We note that the recent stock market rally, the solid US economic data and the fact that there is still room for further Fed cuts all suggest that the US should be able to withstand another tariff hike without slipping into recession. We think Brent is likely to keep trading near $64/bbl today.> Gold climbs following Fed meeting and Powell's press conference. Gold is trading above $1,470/oz after the Fed unanimously opted to leave rates on hold at 1.50-1.75%. The dot plot time suggests that rates will remain unchanged throughout 2020 and begin to increase in 2021. Today, the gold market will be focused on comments from Washington about the possibility of introducing or rescheduling of import duties on Chinese products from December 15. US President Donald Trump and his negotiators will meet Chinese representatives today. The UK general election is taking place, as is the ECB's monetary policy meeting.