Commodities Daily - December 2, 2019

> Oil slides on downbeat OPEC+ meeting expectations then recovers on upbeat Chinese factory activity. Today oil investors await US ISM manufacturing data for November, which we expect to beat the 49.6 consensus estimate and come in well above the 48.3 October level. Given a string of bullish inputs, we think Brent could battle through technical resistance at $61.8/bbl today, opening the way to $62.5/bbl.> Gold market volatility remains low; manufacturing PMIs due today. Official and unofficial Chinese PMI data released on Saturday and this morning exceeded consensus forecasts and had a negative impact on gold. Today will see the release of the eurozone PMI (12:00 Moscow time), the US Markit (17:45) and ISM manufacturing PMIs (18:00). Amid the ongoing tensions between the US and China, we could see gold climb to $1,470-1,475/oz today should negative headlines emerge, otherwise we would expect it to stay in a $1,450-1465/oz range.> Upbeat PMIs from China supporting base metal prices this morning. The official PMIs from China released on Saturday beat the consensus, while this morning the Caixin manufacturing PMI also came in better than expected. Copper prices are also being buoyed by comments from the Codelco management and the ongoing protests in Chile.