Commodities Daily - December 3, 2019

> Oil supported by prospects for deeper OPEC+ cuts, pressured by weak ISM US manufacturing data and Trump's new tariff threats. This morning, Brent is holding its ground near $61/bbl. There is little potentially oil market-moving economic data scheduled for today apart from US November auto sales and the weekly API inventories overnight. From a technical perspective, we believe Brent's current uptrend is likely to end before resistance at $61.8/bbl, as both the 50-day moving average of $61.15/bbl and 100-day moving average of $61.26/bbl are in its path. Global stock markets could also go through a second straight selloff today in the wake of yesterday's geopolitical developments given the continuing lack of clarity on the December 15 tariffs. We see the downside for Brent limited to $59.9/bbl.> Gold stable yesterday, while today offers little in the way of macro data. The US ISM manufacturing index supported gold yesterday, while the political backdrop remained negative. Yesterday, the CFTC reported that the number of open long positions remained significant. The main event today is the NATO leaders' summit, during which Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau will meet to discuss the ratification of the USMCA trade agreement.