Commodities Daily - December 4, 2019

> Oil fell on Trump's trade comments but recovered on possibility of deeper OPEC+ cuts, API drawdown; EIA data eyed today. Ahead of the EIA inventory data, investors will eye the US ADP employment report and ISM US nonmanufacturing PMI, which we expect to be upbeat. We think that a crude draw of 2-3 mln bbl may be in the cards, as we anticipate an increase in both exports and refinery runs alongside slightly lower imports. This would be mildly bullish and would slightly offset any bearish reading in refined products. Following the release of the US economic data and EIA numbers, we expect Brent to battle through resistance at $61.8/bbl today. > Gold climbs as Trump casts doubt on prospects of interim US-China deal; US data eyed today. Looking at technicals, we think the upside for gold today is limited to $1,492/oz; however, in our view, it is more likely to retrace to current support of $1,478/oz later in the day amid upbeat US data and profit taking after the recent rally.