Commodities Daily - December 7, 2018

Oil slides on Vienna uncertainty amid upbeat EIA report; OPEC+ meeting eyed. Following yesterday's disappointing news, today's OPEC+ meeting will obviously be key. To us, it seems like the chances of success are around 50%. Some market players are comparing yesterday's OPEC meeting to the previous one, where a bearish post-meeting statement was followed by a very upbeat meeting with non-OPEC member Russia the next day. We still remain constructive and expect Brent to make a push toward the $65/bbl mark later today as investors price in whatever cuts are agreed to. However, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the talks in Vienna, and prices could swing significantly in either direction, so investors will be swimming at their own risk.Macro headlines increase gold price volatility. Gold made a big intraday move yesterday, climbing from $1,235/oz to $ 1,244/oz. The day started with increasing risks of a US-China trade agreement. Later, the focus shifted to a WSJ report suggesting that the Fed might change its interest rate policy following a likely hike in December. Gold is flat this morning, trading in the $1,238-1,240/oz range ahead of the publication of US nonfarm payrolls (16:30 Moscow time).