Commodities Daily - December 9, 2019

> Oil up on OPEC+ decision to deepen production cuts in 1Q20 amid bullish US nonfarm payrolls data. This morning, Brent and stock markets are under pressure from China's downbeat November data on exports, which were down for the fourth consecutive month, underscoring the effect of the US-China trade war on the Chinese economy. We think that Brent will trade around $64/bbl today amid a lack of catalysts. However, comments on the US-China trade deal could rattle markets at any time given the looming December 15 tariff deadline. > Gold prices down from around $1,480/oz on Friday following upbeat US nonfarm payrolls report. Gold prices have recovered somewhat so far today, however, moving up toward the $1,465/oz mark. CFTC data on speculative positioning released on Friday shows elevated interest in gold. Meanwhile, Chinese November data on gold reserves showed no additional purchases, as volumes were flat. No major macro statistics are due today, so volatility should be moderate ahead of the Fed meeting, which gets underway tomorrow.> Copper breaks above $6,000/tonne. On Saturday, China published data showing steady domestic demand for copper. This came just a day after the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party announced that it would extend economic support measures including reduced borrowing rates for banks, tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending. Both of these releases have provided support to base metal prices. This morning, copper opened higher and is currently up 0.6%.