Commodities Daily - February 13, 2019

> Oil up on risk-on trading and bullish API data despite bearish OPEC and EIA monthly reports; IEA report and EIA inventory updates eyed. We expect the IEA's monthly oil market outlook to be less bearish than yesterday's monthly reports. We also expect the EIA to report a draw of around 2 mln bbl in US crude stocks and a drop in total petroleum inventories (crude and products combined). We think the net result of these reports will be bullish for oil prices and expect Brent to surge today toward a YTD high of $64/bbl. It may even break higher, although $64/bbl represents major technical resistance. Buoyed risk appetite is also likely to continue providing a tailwind, particularly in light of Trump's upbeat trade rhetoric yesterday.> Weaker dollar supports gold prices. Gold is trading above $1,313/oz this morning, but we expect to see a correction today amid lower political risks. > Base metals trading up slightly after losses yesterday. Yesterday evening, Trump said that he might extend the tariff "ceasefire" (expiring March 1). Metals markets have taken this with optimism, believing the chances of new tariffs on Chinese imports have fallen. They opened with slight gains. Copper is up 0.5% as we write, while zinc has added 0.1%.