Commodities Daily - February 14, 2019

> Oil at YTD highs on trade deal optimism and upbeat January trade data from China, despite bearish EIA inventory data. This morning, Brent is on the ascent. It is trading near $64.3/bbl as we write amid rising risk appetite following better than expected January trade data from China (crude imports were up 4.8% y-o-y and remained above 10 mln bpd for the third straight month) and a Bloomberg report that Donald Trump was considering pushing back China's trade import hike deadline by 60 days (citing people familiar with the matter). In our view, today the stage is set for Brent to rise toward the $65/bbl mark amid tailwinds from the FX and stock markets.> Gold prices retreat after early gains. Gold ended up moving lower amid buoyed risk-on sentiment in global markets. The stronger dollar could pressure gold prices further. A move lower to the $1,300/oz level by the end of the week is possible. Investors will also be eyeing the US PPI report today.> Base metals open higher amid strong Chinese trade data. Copper and zinc gained 0.6% this morning, while aluminum and nickel added 0.2% apiece. Sentiment is being buoyed by positive comments surrounding the US-Chinese trade talks underway in Beijing.