Commodities Daily - February 26, 2019

> Oil drops on Trump tweet directed at OPEC; risk rally seems to be fading. Today, the oil market will probably take a break after yesterday's selloff. We think Brent is likely to move slightly above $65/bbl later in the day, as some investors will see the current levels as a good buying opportunity. Market players will eye Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, where he will deliver a semiannual monetary policy update in which he will likely reiterate the Fed's dovish stance, which has supported oil prices recently. The key concern for us at this point is that the risk rally in global markets seems to be losing steam, which suggests that we could see pressure on riskier assets in the weeks to come.> Gold retreating this morning, Powell's speech in focus. Gold traded sideways yesterday in a $1,326-1,332/oz range. Today, the market is focusing on a semiannual monetary policy report to be presented by Fed Chairman Powell and a UK government meeting at which the latest Brexit turn is expected to be discussed. Dovish comments from Powell, as our FX analysts expect, could push gold up to $1,335/oz.