Commodities Daily - January 16, 2019

> Oil prices tick higher, but remain range-bound technically; EIA inventory data eyed. We expect the EIA report today to show a draw in crude stocks of around 2 mln bbl, although we think this will be insufficient to drive total petroleum inventories (crude and products combined) lower, given our expectations of a build in refined product stocks. Such an outcome would have a slight bearish impact on oil - we expect Brent to dip slightly below $60/bbl later today. We note that, as we write, Brent is approaching its 50-day moving average of $60.93/bbl, a strong resistance level.> Base metals generally rallying following China's latest stimulus measures. This morning, copper has risen 0.8% to hit the $5,970/tonne mark, while nickel was up 0.1% to $11,685/tonne and zinc advanced 1.7% to $2,498/tonne. Aluminum has extended its recent rally, pushing ahead to $1,866/tonne, up from the $1,809/tonne low tested on Monday. We continue to monitor headlines related to the actions of the US Congress with regard to the Rusal sanctions. The deadline for companies and investors to cut ties with the company is January 21, while the deadline for a Congressional resolution to stop OFAC's plan to cancel the sanctions is this Friday.> Gold remains firm in range of $1,290-1,292/oz today despite heightened political uncertainty in UK. PM May's Brexit deal was rejected last night in the House of Commons by a vote of 432 to 202. This evening, her government faces a confidence vote, which may bring further uncertainty over Brexit.