Commodities Daily - January 17, 2019

> Oil gains on upbeat 4Q18 earnings despite bearish EIA report; OPEC monthly report eyed. Today, investors are waiting for the monthly OPEC report, which is due at around 15:00 Moscow time. We think the report is likely to be slightly bullish, as the market outlook for this year could be upgraded, with possible mentions of stock draws due to the OPEC+ deal. Later in the day, Morgan Stanley and Netflix will report 4Q18 earnings, which in our view are likely to be upbeat, boosting risk appetite and oil prices. We expect Brent to surge toward $62/bbl later in the day.> Gold holds above $1,290/oz. Political uncertainty is easing, which limits gold's potential for further growth, after British PM Theresa May survived a confidence vote in Parliament yesterday. The dollar has been stable despite the ongoing government shutdown in the US. > Base metals mixed this morning. Nickel, which has gained more than other metals in recent sessions, is down 0.6% to $11,555/tonne as we write, while aluminum has corrected 0.4% to $1,852/tonne. Copper is the exception, holding essentially flat at $5,983/tonne (+0.2%). The Rusal situation remains in the spotlight for the aluminum market. Another factor pressuring aluminum prices is the announcement that the largest global alumina producer Alunorte may soon resume production at full capacity in Brazil.