Commodities Daily - January 21, 2019

> Oil surges despite strong dollar amid rally in stocks, fundamental support. China's weak 4Q18 GDP growth (down 0.1 pp Q-o-Q to 6.4%, the slowest since the global financial crisis) could weigh on risk sentiment today amid the US holiday. We see Brent as likely to trade flat following Friday's rally. The markets are waiting for British Prime Minister Theresa May's "Plan B" for Brexit, which she will present to Parliament later today. Our FX team does not expect this to be a market-moving event.> Gold prices correct almost $12/oz on Friday. The yellow metal is quoted at $1,282/oz this morning. The driver behind Friday's decline was sharp appreciation in the dollar amid strong US industrial production data and news that China had put forward a plan to increase US imports.> Base metal prices rise on Friday, stable today. The rally in base metal prices continued, with copper up 1.0%, nickel 2.0% and lead 1.8%. Even aluminum managed a gain, rising 0.6%. Markets seemed to be pricing in a future rally that would take place if the trade war was brought to an end in 1H19. This morning, Chinese 4Q18 GDP growth was reported (it decelerated to 6.4% y-o-y), along with China's aluminum production in December (up 11% y-o-y), which set a record.