Commodities Daily - January 25, 2019

> Oil range-bound amid bearish EIA data, threat of production loss from Venezuela. Major developments could come at any moment in Venezuela. It appears that the army will play a significant role in shaping the country's future, but so far high-ranking officers have remained loyal to Maduro. Whether this changes remains to be seen. Later today, meanwhile, we expect oil prices to be supported by yet another weekly decrease in the Baker Hughes US oil rig count, although Brent is likely to stay range-bound within the $61-62/bbl corridor. Earlier this week in Davos, US shale producers warned that shale output would likely slow. > Gold remains elevated due to ongoing US political risk. Yesterday, the US Senate failed to approve either of two bills proposed to end the budget crisis. An ECB statement also served to push gold higher. We expect gold to trade sideways today and stay above $1,280/oz.> Base metals witness a mixed session. Copper was boosted by comments from Freeport-McMoRan's CEO during an investor call. Lead rose significantly and retains that positive momentum today. Aluminum came under pressure from rising inventories in Asia and a forecast from Harbor Intelligence, which is projecting record primary aluminum production this year.