Commodities Daily - July 11, 2019

> Oil up on dovish Fed, Gulf of Mexico storm and bullish EIA data; monthly OPEC report and US CPI eyed. Today, investors will be eying the monthly OPEC report, as well as US CPI data for June (projected to remain at 2%), which will be important for the Fed (Powell will have the chance to respond to the data today in his second appearance on Capitol Hill). We think that the OPEC report will show an increased risk of slowing oil demand, thus implying the need for deeper OPEC+ cuts next year. Such an outcome would weigh on oil prices today. Note that a weak inflation reading (1.9% or less) would help solidify the Fed's dovish stance and buoy oil prices. We therefore expect Brent to keep hovering above $67/bbl mark for the majority of the day today.> Gold prices spike after Fed chair all but confirms July rate cut; US June CPI on the radar. Today, gold investors will be focused on the US June CPI data due at 15:30 Moscow time (core inflation is expected to remain at 2.0%), as will the "data-dependent" Fed. Powell may even be given the chance to comment on the data today in his second appearance on Capitol Hill this week. A weak core inflation reading (1.9% or lower) would support the Fed's dovish stance and thus gold prices. All in all, we expect gold to target $1,430/oz later in the day today. The minutes from the latest ECB meeting are also due today, while BoE Governor Mark Carney and five other top Fed officials are scheduled to speak.