Commodities Daily - July 17, 2019

> Oil slides as US claims progress with Iran; EIA data on the radar. US claims that Iran is ready to negotiate may be the result of a misunderstanding of the Iranian position. This implies that yesterday's selloff may be at least partially retraced today. We think that the EIA data will show a crude oil draw of around 4 mln bbl (more than the consensus and the API estimate) on lower imports, higher exports, lower production (1.1 mln bpd of Gulf Coast production remained shut yesterday following the tropical storm) and higher refinery inputs. We expect these factors to push Brent closer to $66/bbl later in the day today.> Gold ticks lower as US economic data remains upbeat. Today, investors will eye June US housing starts at 15:30 Moscow time and the Fed Beige Book at 21:00. The July Beige Book will provide a read on the general US economic situation from the end of May through the month of June and should also offer additional color on factors driving economic growth late in 2Q19. Given gold's current momentum and accounting for today's macro releases, we think gold prices are likely to break slightly below the $1,400/oz threshold.