Commodities Daily - July 18, 2019

> Oil slides on bearish EIA report amid stock market headwinds. This morning, Brent remains below $64/bbl, capped by weak data from Japan. Today, investors will also eye US jobless claims, the US leading indicators index, Philadelphia Fed index and New York Fed President John Williams taking questions on monetary policy. Given the various oil market headwinds discussed above, we doubt that Brent will be able to pare back recent losses. We think it will likely remain with the $63-64/bbl range today.> Gold rallies on weaker dollar amid downbeat US housing data. This morning, gold slid to $1,420/oz amid profit taking. Today, investors will be eyeing US weekly jobless claims (at 15:30 Moscow time), the US leading indicators index (17:00) and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey for July (15:30), and comments from New York Fed President John Williams (a voter who is generally neutral on monetary policy), who will be taking questions on monetary policy. In our view, Williams is likely to maintain his neutral stance today, while the Philly Fed index could come in above expectations (after falling to a four-month low in June), with a strong reading from the new orders component. Given the above, we expect gold to consolidate within the $1,415-1,420/oz range today.