Commodities Daily - July 4, 2019

> Oil stabilizes amid mixed EIA report and as US stocks push higher. US nonfarm payrolls, which will be released tomorrow, will be the main global market release of this week. A weak report could actually buoy risk sentiment, as investors would then start to expect a 50 bp cut from the Fed in July. We think that Brent will likely continue oscillating around the $63/bbl mark for the rest of this week. The US market is closed for Independence Day today.> Gold prices down despite weak macro data from the US. Yesterday, we noted the speculative surge in gold prices following Donald Trump's announcement of two candidates for vacant Fed posts. And as we had expected, gold was unable to hold at levels above $1,420/oz and ended up correcting. Today, meanwhile, several ECB officials are due to speak. They will likely stick to the dovish tone of Mario Draghi's remarks in June. Today is a holiday in the US. We think that gold will likely continue drifting lower today, perhaps to levels around $1,410/oz.> Base metals see mixed trading amid lack of new catalysts. The rally that many investors expected after the US and China reached a truce in the trade war did not materialize. Meanwhile, the macro data from China this week has pointed to an economic slowdown. Against this backdrop, copper continues to trade around the $5,900/tonne mark, aluminum is now trading below $1,800/tonne, while zinc is below $2,500/tonne. Nickel, meanwhile, has been the lone relative bright spot, as it has managed to hold the $12,000/tonne level.