Commodities Daily - June 10, 2019

> Oil up amid surging stock markets, likelihood of OPEC+ deal extension, US-Mexico deal. Given the risk-on sentiment prevailing following the US-Mexico deal, we think that Brent is likely to secure above $64/bbl later in the day today. We also think that a further rally in oil prices could be in the cards this week, although this will be partially contingent on US inventory data, which has recently been counter-seasonally bearish. > Gold price volatile, jumping on US employment report then tumbling on de-escalation of trade risks. After surging to $1,348/oz following the release of a weaker than expected US employment report, the gold price tumbled late in the day on Friday, pressured as reports emerged that the US and Mexico had reached an agreement that would avoid new US tariffs. Gold opened lower this morning and is trading at $1,326-1,330/oz as we write. We expect the price to be stable at these levels throughout the day. However, we note the risk of further pressure if risk appetite strengthens and the dollar weakens at the US open, in which case the gold price could fall to $1,320/oz.> Base metals mixed this morning following release of Chinese data. Base metals markets saw limited activity on Friday due to a public holiday in China. Weak US labor market data ensured that all base metals closed slightly lower, with aluminum and zinc losing just under 1%. This morning, Chinese trade figures injected some optimism into the market. We anticipate news from the US, as today is the deadline for submitting applications to participate in a public hearing scheduled for June 17 about introducing import duties on $300 bln worth of Chinese imports.