Commodities Daily - June 13, 2019

> Oil slides on bearish EIA inventory data, reiteration of Trump tariff threat; Saudi tanker attack and OPEC report in focus. Brent rallied this morning amid reports of attacks on two tankers in the Sea of Oman. These events, which are heightening tensions in the region, follow similar incidents last month. Today, the market awaits the monthly OPEC report. The OPEC secretariat's take on the prospects for oil demand growth this year should be the major market-moving factor in the report. We think OPEC is unlikely to lower its global demand growth forecast of 1.21 mln bpd for this year as it already has the lowest forecast among OPEC, the IEA and the EIA. This would be positive for the market. The political fallout from the tanker attack is likely to raise tension in the Middle East, which may well support oil today. We see Brent holding just below technical resistance at $62.76/bbl later today.> Gold prices on a steady climb the last couple days. Yesterday's US inflation reading strengthened expectations of a Fed rate cut this year, and gold prices rose to $1,338/oz. The most important thing on the calendar today is US weekly jobless claims, while tomorrow the market will be focusing on US retail sales for May. We think the positive momentum in gold will continue into next week. The next resistance level is $1,350/oz.