Commodities Daily - June 14, 2019

> Oil rallies on tanker attacks, but now down amid deteriorating oil demand outlooks; IEA report in focus. At the moment, investors are digesting the IEA monthly report (released at 11:00 Moscow time) and the organization's take on 2019 global oil demand given the trade disputes. Demand was lowered to 100.3 mln bpd, which means y-o-y growth of 1.2 mln bpd, down from the1.3 mln bpd seen last month. This, together with losses for European stocks at the start of trading (poor risk sentiment could carry over to the US session), is likely to pressure Brent below $61/bbl and eventually to $60/bbl by the end of the day. Investors will also be eyeing US retail sales, industrial production, Michigan sentiment and the Baker Hughes rig counts.> Gold price at highest level since January 2018. Burgeoning geopolitical risks - most notably the accusations leveled by the US against Iran for attacks on tankers in the Oman Gulf - have buoyed gold. Another support factor is next week's Fed meeting. However, we expect to see a technical correction in the coming weeks. We therefore recommend taking profit at current levels. Gold is trading at $1,355/oz as we write.