Commodities Daily - June 17, 2019
> Oil steady as Middle East uncertainty and US retail sales offset bearish IEA market outlook. As we write, front-month Brent is trading below $62/bbl, even after some rather upbeat comments from Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih about extending production cuts. The market reaction to these remarks this morning reassured us that the deal extension through 2H19 is almost fully priced in. Today, the markets will eye ECB President Mario Draghi's speech at 20:00 Moscow time, which is likely to touch on further stimulus for the persistently weak eurozone economy and could therefore further weigh on EUR/USD. This, in turn, would weigh on Brent, which we expect to secure slightly below $62/bbl later today.> Gold corrects as dollar strengthens on US economic data. US retail sales and industrial production gave a boost to the dollar on Friday evening, which led to pressure on gold. On Friday, we put out a recommendation to take advantage of the current market environment and close long speculative positions in gold to prepare for a possible correction following the Fed meeting this week.
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