Commodities Daily - June 19, 2019

> Oil up on Trump-Xi meeting, date for OPEC+ meeting; EIA data and Fed decision eyed today. We expect the EIA to report a strong crude oil draw of around 4 mln bbl amid higher exports, lower imports and higher refinery runs (we think the refined product data will be mixed, in line with the API's estimates). This would drive Brent toward, or even above, the $63/bbl mark. Most important for the market today will be the Fed decision (21:00 Moscow time). Our FX analysts believe that expectations of a July cut are premature and think the Fed will likely disappoint the markets by signaling further patience, which would likely boost the dollar and induce risk-off trading. This, following an expected upbeat EIA report, would be negative for oil prices, pressuring Brent below $62/bbl overnight.> Gold consolidates above $1,340/oz ahead of Fed decision. Comments by ECB President Draghi and US President Trump, as well as US data, impacted intraday volatility. Today, the focus will be on the Fed decision and Powell's press conference. We expect the Fed to leave rates on hold and maintain a wait-and-see approach, so we see gold sliding $20-25/oz following the decision and press conference.> Resumption of US-China trade negotiations leads to rally in metals. Metal prices rallied yesterday, with copper adding 1.8% on the day, zinc 1.7% and nickel 1.5%. Copper prices were also supported by the continuing strike at the Chuquicamata mine in Chile.