Commodities Daily - June 20, 2019

> Oil climbs on bullish EIA inventory report and Fed dovishness. We think Brent is now free to rally to $65.79/bbl, which is the next major technical resistance level (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from Brent's December rally) in the run-up to the G20 summit in Osaka on June 28, which is set to become the next milestone for oil in light of high-level US-China trade talks. Today, the market awaits the BoE rate decision, the ECB's economic bulletin, UK retail sales, Eurozone consumer confidence, and the US's leading indicators index. We think the EIA data and Fed have injected sufficient bullish sentiment for Brent to break above $64/bbl later today.> Gold prices soar after Fed decision. Though the Fed held rates unchanged yesterday, it signaled its readiness to cut them. Overall, its rhetoric turned out much more dovish than markets had expected. Given that the Fed seems to have concluded its tightening, we close our tactical recommendation opened last Friday and revise upward our annual gold price forecast for this year and 2020-21.