Commodities Daily - June 24, 2019

> Oil ticks higher on US-Iran tensions amid downbeat global PMI data. This week's obvious highlights are the G20 summit on Friday-Saturday and the ramp-up to next week's OPEC/OPEC+ meetings on July 1-2. We think Brent is likely to continue trading sideways today, with support possibly coming from the announcement of US sanctions against Iran. We are skeptical that Brent can settle above $65.79/bbl, the next major resistance level.> Gold trading above $1,400/oz as political tensions remain elevated. The US is expected to expand its sanctions against Iran today, which should support gold prices, already boosted by the threat of an armed conflict between the two countries. The dollar has continued to weaken, with European economic data boosting the euro on Friday and US data weighing on the dollar. That data would suggest that Fed policy will continue to be softened. Today, we think economic activity indexes from the Chicago and Dallas Feds are the key item on the calendar.> G20 summit in Osaka likely to set the tone for base metals this week. At present, the signals from both the Chinese and the US are optimistic. Chinese Deputy Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen expressed hopes for a compromise. US Vice President Mike Pence on Friday canceled a scheduled speech that had largely been expected to be critical of Beijing's policy. China's foreign trade data for May indicated rising demand for copper and lead concentrates.