Commodities Daily - June 7, 2019

> Oil climbs on reports that US could delay import tariff hikes on Mexican goods; US nonfarm payrolls in focus. Today's US payroll data will be key for sentiment and will likely boost market volatility. A weak set of data would likely give the stock market and oil prices a further boost (albeit counterintuitively), as the market would likely see this as further ground for the Fed to lower rates. Against this backdrop, we expect Brent to move toward $64/bbl today. Other releases today include the Baker Hughes rig counts and US wholesale inventories.> Gold trading above $1,330/oz this morning. Gold has been holding above the $1,330/oz mark this morning ahead of the release of the US jobs report this evening and the planned imposition of US tariffs on Mexican imports on Monday. Yesterday's downbeat comments from IMF chief Christine Lagarde and the announcement of new Chinese stimulus measures have had little effect on the gold market. We expect gold prices to hold at $1,330-1,335/oz today. However, if the US jobs data is weak, thus increasing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, we would expect the dollar to weaken and gold to climb toward $1,340/oz.