Commodities Daily - March 13, 2019

> Oil stable amid Brexit uncertainty, bullish EIA monthly report and API inventory data; EIA's inventory update eyed. We are slightly bullish on where oil prices are headed today. We expect the EIA to confirm API's view of w-o-w crude oil and gasoline inventory draws, which could be sufficient to push Brent toward the upper end of the $67-68/bbl range later in the day, although there is strong technical resistance at $67.9/bbl (the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels from Brent's October correction).> Gold rises on US inflation data and Brexit news. Today, the UK Parliament will vote on whether to leave the EU without an agreement on March 29. If it votes no, another vote will be held tomorrow on pushing back the deadline. If Parliament gives its approval for a Brexit without a deal, we would expect gold prices to climb to $1,325-1,330/oz. That said, we are not confident of such a result; as our base case, we think MPs will vote to try to extend the Brexit deadline and that gold prices will remain in the $1,290-1,310/oz range today.> Base metals prices up across the board yesterday. Zinc was the top performer among base metals yesterday with a 3.7% gain on data showing LME inventories at a historically low level. Today, the price action has been mixed amid a consolidating market. China is set to publish a batch of macro statistics overnight, including industrial production. Last week's February trade data from China was considerably weaker than expected, so there is a good chance the industrial production data will disappoint as well, sending base metals prices lower.