Commodities Daily - March 15, 2019

> Oil rally stalls on trade deal uncertainty, OPEC report; monthly IEA report and rig count eyed. This morning, Brent is trending higher, with oil investors eyeing the monthly IEA report and the Baker Hughes rig counts. We think that the former (no downward demand growth and upward non-OPEC supply growth revisions amid lower OPEC production) and the latter (yet another decrease in active rig count of the US) will be upbeat, supporting Brent back to $68/bbl today. Brent's battle with the strong technical resistance level at $67.85/bbl will once again be closely watched. Note that the next resistance level is Brent's 200-day moving average of $69.59/bbl.> Gold at $1,300/oz ahead of next week's Fed meeting. Yesterday's votes in the UK Parliament failed to have a significant impact on gold. Next Wednesday, the Fed will publish its post-meeting press release at 21:00 Moscow time, and Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference at 21:30. We anticipate that rates will be kept on hold and more dovish rhetoric from Powell, so we think gold is likely to climb 3-5% over the next few days.> Base metals mixed this morning. On the one hand, the latest news about the US-China trade negotiations is pressuring prices, while, on the other, new Chinese stimulus measures (with a focus on tax cuts and other "targeted" demand-side measures) are supporting them. Copper is up 0.5% and nickel 0.6%, while zinc is down 1.5% and silver 0.7%.