Commodities Daily - March 19, 2018
Oil up on strong US industrial production and higher demand projection from IEA. Today, we think some investors will start to price in Russia’s early withdrawal from the OPEC+ cut deal in 2018 following comments by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak. We think that Novak’s statement will force Brent to trade closer to $65/bbl later today.Gold pressured by surging dollar and Treasury yields; Fed rate decision eyed. Our FX analysts are positive on EUR/USD over the medium term but see risks of a hawkish Fed outcome this week, which could send the pair toward 1.22, a level last seen in early March, when Treasury yields were lower and gold was trading at $1,305-1,310/oz. We think that a dip in EUR/USD this week to 1.22 would drive the gold price slightly below $1,300/oz. However, today we expect gold to remain within a $1,305-1,310/oz corridor.
Sberbank CIB Investment Research is a research firm offering equity, fixed income, economics, and strategy research. It covers analysis on all aspects of Russia’s capital markets, issues and industries. The firm analyzes trends in Russia and combines local knowledge with a global perspective. It processes macroeconomic data, market and company-specific news, stock quotes and other information for providing research reports. The firm provides details and latest prices on the most traded names and most traded paper on all segments Russian market. In strategy research, it provides thematic research, tips and descriptions of the methodology used to evaluate companies.
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