Commodities Daily - May 13, 2019

> Oil prices stable as US-China trade talk deadlock remains in focus. The macro calendar is effectively empty today. Tomorrow will see OPEC's monthly market report, eurozone industrial production, US import and export prices, as well as API inventory data. Wednesday will be busy, with US and Chinese retail sales, Chinese industrial production, IEA and EIA monthly oil market reports and the EIA weekly inventory update for the US. Today, we think that Brent will largely keep trading flat within the $70-71/bbl range.> Gold price rally takes a breather. The latest developments suggest that the chances of a positive outcome to the US-China trade talks are bleak, with China about to announce retaliatory measures against the US's latest tariffs and US President Trump making a series of remarks indicating that the talks are far from a resolution and stating that the US sees no reason to capitulate on any of its demands. Given the current circumstances and the increased likelihood of the trade talks failing, any dip in gold prices (as we are seeing this morning) creates a good opportunity for buying, which we could see later today, thus keeping gold above $1,280/oz.