Commodities Daily - November 1, 2019

> Oil down on downbeat trade deal rhetoric by China, growing US production; US Keystone pipeline disruption still in focus. This morning, Brent drew some support from an unexpectedly upbeat Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI print for October, which rose further into expansionary territory. However, many have doubts about the figures, given their divergence from the official PMI in recent months, which has shown the manufacturing sector falling further into contraction. Today, investors will eye manufacturing PMIs from around the globe, as well as US nonfarm payrolls, construction orders and rig count data. We think that the data is likely to be downbeat, generating a risk-off move in global markets. We think Brent will likely slide toward the lower end of the $58-59/bbl range today.> Gold prices surge as stock markets plunge along with US Treasury yields; array of economic data on the radar. We think that gold will benefit from what will likely be downbeat prints for US nonfarm payrolls and the manufacturing PMI. Comments from Fed officials later in the day (most notably from Vice Chair Richard Clarida) will be key. We think that gold has potential to consolidate within the $1,520-1,530/oz range later today.