Commodities Daily - November 11, 2019

> Oil still being driven by US-China trade deal developments and OPEC market view. Today's calendar is almost empty apart from a heavy day for UK macro data that includes GDP, industrial production and the trade balance. Risk sentiment is deteriorating as we write, and Brent is trading below $62/bbl, with stock markets also trending lower amid escalated protests in Hong Kong, where police shot a protester. We believe there is a strong potential for a global risk-off move this week given low expectations that Donald Trump will make concessions to China, at least in the short term. US trading is likely to be thin today as it is celebrating Veterans Day, although markets remain open. We think Brent is likely to slide toward the $61/bbl mark later today. We see technical support at $61.7/bbl and $60.9/bbl.> Gold remained under pressure on Friday but is consolidating near $1,465/oz this morning. Today is a holiday in the US. We expect gold to rise toward $1,475/oz amid escalating tensions in Hong Kong and uncertainty over the US-China trade talks. A batch of macro data from the UK (GDP, industrial production and the trade balance) is due at 12:30 Moscow time.