Commodities Daily - November 14, 2019

> Oil up amid upbeat market outlooks, higher stock markets; OPEC report and EIA data on the radar. Investors are now positioning themselves for today's monthly OPEC report (likely to be upbeat, in our view) and the weekly EIA inventory data. The Bloomberg consensus is for a 1.5 mln bbl build in crude inventories, a 1.25 mln bbl draw in gasoline stocks and a 0.95 mln bbl decrease in distillate stockpiles. We think that a crude draw in excess of 4 mln bpd may be in the cards today, which would be very bullish and would offset any bearish development in the refined product category. Following the release, we would expect Brent to test the $63.2/bbl resistance level. If it breaks above this level, it could go to $64/bbl, although gains beyond that are unlikely due to strong technical resistance in the $64.1-64.7/bbl area.> US-China trade talk uncertainty buoys gold. Yesterday, US data and Jerome Powell's speech helped gold to stay in the $1,458-1,465/oz range. This morning, gold moved higher after a Wall Street Journal report on the trade talks and weak macro data from China. Powell is scheduled to speak at 18:00 Moscow time today, while other Fed officials are also expected to provide comments. The most important data releases will be 3Q19 eurozone GDP (13:00) and the US PPI (16:30).> Base metals pressured by US-China pessimism, Chinese economic data. Trump's threat to ratchet up tariffs on Chinese imports should China refuse to conclude a phase one trade deal pressured base metal prices throughout the day yesterday and into today. In addition, Chinese economic data missed expectations this morning, which we expect to pressure base metal prices after the London open. We see the potential for the 3m forward contract for copper to fall to $5,800/tonne today, the contract for aluminum to $1,750/tonne and that for zinc to $2,400/tonne.