Commodities Daily - November 20, 2019

> Oil continues to slide amid concerns over OPEC+, US-China deals; EIA data eyed. We think that a surprising crude draw of 1-2 mln bbl may be in the cards for today's EIA report, as we anticipate an increase in US exports. This would be bullish and would likely offset any bearish developments in the refined product category. Following the release of the EIA data, we expect Brent to rise toward $61.2/bbl, its 50-day moving average. However, we do not think these gains could be sustained in the current market environment and would expect Brent to move back toward $60/bbl before long.> Gold supported but stable as US-China political tensions increase. The gold price is trading around the $1,475/oz mark as we write. Today, global markets will be focused on the minutes from the last Fed meeting (to be released at 22:00 Moscow time). We are also awaiting Russian gold reserve data (due at 16:00).> Base metal prices still under pressure despite more Chinese stimulus; market focused on growth in aluminum and nickel inventories. The PBoC today cut its 1y loan prime rate by 5 bps to 4.15% from 4.20%, continuing its supportive monetary policy aimed at increasing credit and gradually bringing down real interest rates. Despite the signals of more Chinese economic stimulus, base metal prices have remained under pressure today. The 3m forward contract for copper is quoted at $5,850/tonne, aluminum at $1,734/tonne and nickel at $14,450/tonne as we write. Over the next couple days, we expect a lot of comments about the copper market given that Asia Copper Week has kicked off in Shanghai, one of the leading market events.