Commodities Daily - November 27, 2019

> Oil up on US-China trade deal optimism; US inventory data eyed. Today, following what we believe will be downbeat US durable goods orders data, we think that Brent could rebound on what we expect to be a 1-2 mln bbl draw in US crude oil stocks. Following the release of the EIA stockpile data, we expect Brent to battle through resistance at $64.55/bbl, its 200-day moving average, and then perhaps continue all the way to $65/bbl on yet another bullish Baker Hughes report. Given the recently upbeat US-China trade deal rhetoric, we believe Brent could consolidate in a $64.8-$65.6/bbl technical range in the medium term.> Gold currently stable after gaining on weak US consumer confidence data late yesterday. There is a large batch of data due from the US today ahead of the long holiday weekend, including a second reading of 3Q19 GDP growth, durable goods orders, the Fed Beige Book, initial jobless claims and MBA mortgage applications. Investors will also be keeping an eye on a summit of US, Canadian and Mexican ministers in DC. Positive commentary on the USMCA trade deal could put pressure on gold prices, which we expect to trade in a range of $1,445-1,460/oz today.> Base metal prices higher despite negative data from China. This morning, data on Chinese industrial profits in October came in weak, while yesterday news emerged that China's Tewoo Group could be headed for default. However, base metals shrugged off the news and advanced on trade deal optimism. Copper prices are also advancing thanks to the ongoing protests in Chile.