Commodities Daily - October 14, 2019

> Oil prices ease on fading trade optimism. Despite both sides making concessions no agreement was actually signed - possibly meaning that the two sides were unable to agree on a text - so all investors have to go on are the verbal promises of the two sides. This makes the positive sentiment quite fragile. However, in our view, the lack of escalation - despite the limited progress - highlights the fact that the US has started to soften its stance, which lowers the possibility of an abrupt global market selloff. The uncertainty stemming from the lack of a formal agreement is likely to keep weighing on Brent through the day today, although this morning's upbeat data showing a 10.8% y-o-y increase in China's crude oil imports in September should somewhat counterbalance the headwinds. We therefore expect Brent to secure within the lower end of the current $59-60/bbl range later today.> Gold prices trading close to $1,490/oz despite de-escalation in trade war. Friday going into the close of European trading it became clear that the US-China trade talks were likely to deliver progress toward a partial deal. This pushed gold prices down to $1,475/oz, although support later came from the Fed's announcement that it was going to resume purchases of Treasuries (starting with $60 bln in the one-month period starting in mid-October). Brexit developments will be key today. We expect gold to hold within a $1,485-1,500/oz range. > Copper and zinc move higher following reports of a possible partial deal between the US and China. This morning, Chinese trade data for September indicated a slowdown, but copper product imports surged 10% m-o-m, while copper concentrate imports and aluminum exports fell 12.9% and 6.7%, respectively.