Commodities Daily - October 31, 2019

> Despite upbeat US economic data, oil down on APEC summit cancellation, mixed EIA data. This morning, Brent is trending higher and the Brent-WTI spread is shrinking amid the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline. This overshadows a bearish print of China's October manufacturing PMI, implying a deepening contraction in the sector. Today, investors will also eye the EIA's 914 report on US oil production in August. Output fell for a third straight month in July, to 11.81 mln bpd, although the August data is likely to show an uptick. We think that Brent today is more likely to recover back above $61/bbl later in the day amid the Keystone pipeline shutdown.> Gold plummets but recovers swiftly following Fed meeting. Gold pared back intraday losses yesterday following the Fed rate cut and was approaching the $1,500/oz mark this morning. The market will now eye Donald Trump's response to the Fed's comments, as he has previously called for lower rates. Today, we expect gold to stick around the $1,500/oz mark amid declining US Treasury yields and the weaker dollar.