Commodities Daily - September 10, 2019

> Oil ticks higher on upbeat comments from new Saudi energy minister; EIA monthly report set for release. We expect the EIA monthly report to be mostly bullish amid downward revisions to US oil production growth estimates for this year and next. The API US inventory data due overnight is also likely to provide support, as we expect it to show a strong US crude oil stock drawdown of 4-5 mln bbl. Given the above and the favorable global risk sentiment, we anticipate Brent shifting closer to the upper end of the $63-64/bbl range today.> Gold keeps falling amid growing risk appetite, rising US Treasury yields. Recent global data has been coming out upbeat, which has been negative for gold. For instance, this morning China's August CPI reading showed a rise of 2.8% y-o-y, which beat the consensus of 2.6%, while PPI (a key barometer of corporate profitability) shrank just 0.8%, versus an expected drop of 0.9%. Today's agenda is very light, while technical analysis from Reuters suggests that gold could retrace to $1,453/oz after clearing support at $1,497/oz this morning. We do not see such strong downside, though we believe gold is likely to sustain further losses before the ECB meeting on Thursday.