Commodities Daily - September 13, 2019

> Gold prices remain volatile after ECB meeting and talk of possible temporary US-China trade deal. Gold rose sharply to $1,523/oz yesterday following the ECB decision. However, Draghi's press conference, the US CPI and jobless claim prints, in tandem with promising headlines ahead of the renewal of US-China talks, sent gold down to as low as $1,496/oz. In focus today will be US retail sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. We expect gold to hold above $1,500/oz, but a move toward $1,490/oz could be in the cards if the US data is strong.> Base metal prices climbing higher; trading activity restrained today due to Chinese holiday. Yesterday, headlines appeared that the Trump administration was considering an interim trade deal with China that could delay or even cancel certain tariffs that have already been announced. Donald Trump tweeted that the deal would involve China buying "large amounts" of US agricultural products. This positive news caused trading in base metals to pick up in the second half of yesterday's session and helped copper to a 1% gain on the day. Meanwhile, the yuan weakened to 7.07 versus the dollar. Today, three-month forward contracts on copper are still trading at elevated levels around $5,900/tonne, while zinc is near $2,370/tonne.