Commodities Daily - September 25, 2019
> Oil slides on Trump's tough talk on China and Saudi progress on restoring production; EIA data eyed. Today, we expect the EIA to report a strong crude oil stock build of 5-7 mln bbl (amid lower exports and lower refinery runs), which is likely to disappoint investors and pressure Brent toward $61.3/bbl, its 50-day moving average, while technical analysis published by Reuters today points at a possible move to $61.4/bbl. We also note that global markets seem skewed toward further risk-off, which could additionally weigh on Brent.> Gold climbs above $1,530/oz amid still elevated volatility. Political risks remain the main driver for gold prices, which shot up in the second half of yesterday's trading amid Brexit developments, the launch of an impeachment inquiry in the US and Trump's tough comments directed at China. Today, two Fed presidents are scheduled to speak in the US, where data on new home sales and mortgage approvals is slated for release. We believe gold could approach technical resistance at $1,540/oz today.
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